absolutelyBangkok archive · News & Media
Originally published May 11, 2010
The end is near, or so we thought. Some commentators were already putting up their final red protest analysis — such as Prof. Federico Ferrara aka Khi Kwai’s The End of the Beginning, or exiled Giles Ji Ungpakorn getting at the heart of what the reds may have achieved. May. Even the most ardent supporters thought it’s a done deal. But you’re dealing with the reds.
The analyzes were written though and the reds pushed new demands by trying to politicize the justice system. Or they’re shit-scared of getting no bail. Well that’s no surprise really as the leaders at the same time tried to get new northern supply over the weekend. You could argue to have a fuller house when (conditional) victory is declared. Or more likely:
It never was in the interest of the more radical wing within the red leadership to accept the prime minister’s roadmap toward reconciliation. Intentional bluffing with the aim to “fail”? A wait of another six months until elections is defeat if you’re a radical. So despite public peace overtures, the name of the game remains the same: seeking escalation. And maybe the reds finally get what they’re after since the very beginning.
There are reports that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva for the first time himself gave the reds an ultimatum. Leave until Wednesday night, May 12, or else. No more talks. Measures to be taken by government against reds may affect surrounding areas. First a soft squeezing of the protest by cutting access and supplies including water and electricity.
If this doesn’t do it, expect an encircling by hopefully loyal security forces, cutting the reds’ last routes, the ones who want can still leave, and so forth. The new school year opens Monday, the operation should be concluded by the weekend. But that’s the textbook scenario. Why should it play out like this when the conflict is a weird show of twists and turns since the very start. Hey by now yellow shirts even accuse Abhisit of being a watermelon premier.
So… in the last minute the reds will give in after all the posturing? Has the government enough public support by now to risk casualties? I don’t think a crackdown would be that bloody, strategic targets could be taken out swiftly, but there’s a price to pay. The north and northeast could be lost for some time.
On the other hand, talking to people and reading online stuff suggests that many wouldn’t mind the reds getting what they deserve. Others accuse the government of dishonesty — as if giving the reds more than a week is not enough — and see the hand of a genius at play in the reds’ seemingly erratic, but highly effective strategy (if you don’t want peace that is).
The conflict’s as fluid as ever. We could be on the way toward reconciliation by now with elections before year’s end. If the red radicals get their way — I say “radicals” because there’s an obvious split within red leadership — if the radical elements get their way then Abhisit cancels the reconciliation offer and even the elections due at the end of 2011 could be doubtful, who knows what would happen in between.
Interesting as well that the “resistance” at red Ratchaprasong mainly depends on upcountry folks. If you stroll through the area during a weekday morning you won’t find more than a thousand people. That’s peanuts for any army. But yes, this is Thailand where nothing even remotely is what it looks like.
Yes, some publications try to play up the many rich supporters of the red movement. You have to try hard to find them. You surely don’t see many of them during an average weekday. What you see? Honest farmers and laborers. Some sleeping, some cooking, others playing cards. Most just smiling and waiting for Godot it seems. Village life gone downtown.
The reds wouldn’t be that daredevil without good intel. But as academic Thitinan Pongsudhirak recently said: “If the reds delay a decision there will be repercussions (…) If the red shirts are intransigent public opinion will turn against them.”
Well public opinion turned long ago. The ball’s overdue in the reds’ court. If they refuse to budge and the government doesn’t act, then we got proof: we’re a country without leadership. The government’s discredited with Abhisit’s days clearly numbered. The red shirts would be a step closer to what they intended, even though a fallen prime minister doesn’t mean a dissolution of the house.
The big unknown/doubt is if Abhisit can act.
Maybe the gentleman can be tough. We’ll soon know.
Maybe.
He played it quite clever so far, being kicked from all sides. A wrong move and easily incited people get out of control. Oh by the way, do you know why lately people report so many stolen/lost I.D. cards? Well some wanna get home, but for the money they got organizers kept their cards.
Finally, the reds’ desperate heavy bargaining is only understandable. They face serious charges with — on the paper — capital punishment.
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