absolutelyBangkok archive · News & Media
Originally published March 15, 2010
That’s not the red shirt, that’s the red short rally. Maybe I’ll go out on a limb — hey yes I had wrongly called the yellow protest a day, right before those maniacs invaded Suvarnabhumi. But looks like the Million Man March utterly failed. The rather grotesque peaceful blood-letting aside — ah, and the M79 grenade attack -, Thaksin’s red marchers may tire themselves out within a not too long time. The metaphor of the “blood promise” as an exit strategy? We were also promised regime change, the end of the “junta,” but their numbers just don’t add up. Now it’s all about not looking weak and saving face.
Somehow one can feel but pity for Thaksin. The fugitive’s now even more isolated. His so dedicated foot soldiers failed. The so far biggest show of force on Sunday with many sightseers and curious onlookers on Rajdamnoen was a sweet Pyrrhic victory before reality set in on Monday morning when the dancing and chanting solidarity started marching. Many of them knowing, this march actually leads to nowhere. They barely reached the 11th Infantry Regiment, the ultimatum passed — now the search for blood started. And many protesters, already packed, simply went home.
No one treats the potential threat of violence instigated by a small red core faction or a third party lightly. But so far most reds were peace in person. They even waited for traffic lights on their travels in the city. Then why does their March to Democracy seem to fizzle out that early? Or — to be politically correct — why do they resort to a “tactical retreat”? Well first of all, it’s a monumental challenge to jolly along tens of thousands of people. It’s hot, it’s dirty, with no quick results to be expected… But if the yellows can do it, why not the reds? Even though the yellows’ street numbers were lower, they had a rigid, tightly organized support structure, they were “local,” always a step ahead of the government — and didn’t shy away from real escalation. Raising the stakes remains the reds’ only way out to achieve something.
The red leadership seems less malign, while the government didn’t yet blink for a second and played a cool steady waiting game by allowing the masses to protest, but according to the government’s terms that is. The red protesters walked into the trap. What so far looks like a sea of peaceful revolutionaries is in truth something of a gladiator show, tightly controlled, great for pictures, with only one outcome. This is by no means the reds’ deathblow. But they’re afraid to make mistakes. Their show of hesitation so far doesn’t strengthen them, but the government, while the Bangkokian rumor mill spins: the protest leaders are supposed to deliver, but broke. One rumor goes that Thaksin finances the U.K. education of red leader Veera Musikapong’s children. What do I know, but money is a factor.
Said
CNN’s Dan Rivers in a live report:
“It’s unclear how many of the protesters are genuinely angry and want change — and how many are paid to be there.”
Read a tweet:
“There is no cash and the in-country MPs won’t put their hands in their own pockets. Game over.”
And don’t forget the economy. Indices pointing down would have given the reds the support from undecided Bangkokians, but by not joining the protest in masses they spoke clearly. Bangkok is not interested in regime change when things start looking better, and one can only guess why only a 100,000 people from the northern and northeastern rural areas made it to the capital. The red leadership had made the calculations. We were promised at least half a million. Sure, life is difficult in the provinces, but maybe not that miserable?
Continued recovery, strong demand for condos and Thai commodities and agricultural products speak in favor of the government. Life in the red north and northeast, to be honest, is not extremely bad under the current regime. Living conditions have not fallen extremely since Abhisit’s rise to power. It’s a cyclic thing, and in part because Thaksin’s policies have since been upheld, even though under different names in different packages. But there’s hardly more suffer and pain than before. Suffer and pain would drive the masses. It was not to be.
In truth the protest boils down to an ideological one, or to the fate of one single man. Yes, we all want democracy and the end of double standards, but that’s how politics are played in Thailand. It’s this elite or that elite. Analyzing the relatively meager red show of force can tell us this: Yes, the red shirt movement is here to stay and press for change. They got honorable goals, but have easily outwitted tactics, a not perfect timing combined with the lack of a clear strategy to go on no matter what — and Thailand is too peaceful and calm at the moment to really stir up the masses. Bangkok went on as usual, ignoring the protest once it started. Hey even army speakers won the day, they made some red shirts giggle.
Yes, after all the promises a red protest was behind time. All this protest does though — given there’s no escalation ahead — seems to strengthen the government. The Abhisit regime didn’t harm a fly so far, the red marchers were well protected and gently confined to their spaces. City staff even cleaned up their garbage and waste left behind around Royal Plaza and after they left the 11th Infantry Regiment. To Bangkokians finally the reds don’t look like a solution, they’re rather — sad to say — a nuisance. No citizens cheering and waving along the roads.
Fixing the real problems, Abhisit said in an address before the noon ultimatum passed, takes more than that noon ultimatum.
The reds may march on. But with no clear strategy and deep pockets they won’t be taken seriously, that day, when Thais are heading to the polls.
Last but not least: What a miscalculation, that blood campaign.
Tweeted
BangkokPundit:
For reds blood gimmick, they should do donation + gimmick. Red Cross probably can’t process all the blood, but some would be beneficial.
The Thai Red Cross won’t help red shirt protesters in blood donation procedures, we learn, and warns improper practice can cause paralysis and/or infection.
That’s potentially a lot of human lives wasted. Says something about a dark mindset. Guess who said this:
“Only here do they suck blood of people fighting for them. Go suck your parents’ blood instead.”
That’s right, Seh Daeng. Yes maybe he’s not that crazy after all.
No strategy, not united. The reds are not winning hearts by going after their own blood.
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