absolutelyBangkok archive · Business & Economics
Originally published June 30, 2011
Slowly but surely, democracy is gaining roots in several parts of the world, particularly where the political dispensation is far from being democratic. The recent events in countries like Libya and Egypt are perhaps a flash in the pan. Irrespective of territorial, linguistic or religious alignments, more and more people are beginning to understand the values of democracy. The upcoming Thailand elections should be viewed in this backdrop.
Thailand’s political problems germinated several decades ago and have achieved cancerous growth over these years. The main contestants are the Democrats — the party currently in power headed by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Puea Thai — Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister’s political vehicle(now headed by his sister Yingluck Shinawatra that is also popularly known as the Reds. According to pollsters, both the political alignments are headed for a photo finish kind of situation. But, the major question facing the future of Thailand politics is how well the society accepts the results.
The establishment forces in Thailand are pretty much powerful and if the Democrats manage to get the better percentage share of votes, even without an absolute majority, it could be a smooth sailing of sorts for the political establishment in the nation. Arm twisting by the army and significant electoral frauds have been witnessed in the past and a repeat of these features cannot be ruled out. But, in today’s scenario that could provoke the reds and they may take things to the streets.
A Puea Thai/Shinawatra win is perhaps the last thing that the establishment can digest. Thaksin was thrown out through a coup in 2006 and is currently in exile in Dubai. The influential and mighty in Bangkok are not expected to roll out a red carpet and welcome Thaksin back from Dubai yet again. Therefore, they are more likely to play all their trumps to prevent that scenario.
Even if Puea Thai manages to romp home with an absolute majority, the party being able to stay in power for long is extremely doubtful and that would add impetus to the probability of another coup. In the current environment a military coup is unlikely to be in the best interests of Thailand or for the Thai people. Washington’s penchant to support democracy and democratic movements could play spoil sport and Thailand could potentially face sanctions. In turn this could be catastrophic for Thailand because 65% of her GDP comes from exports. The other major income spinner for Thailand is tourism, and it would surely be effected as many people would cancel or delay there thailand holiday plans.
Political turmoils are not new to Thailand and the nation’s economy has shown great resilience even on the face of civil unrest and political instability. In 2010 Thailand grew it’s GDP by about 8% and that represents a decent figure, at least in the South East Asian region. Thailand perhaps knows, and knows well — where the lines are drawn between politics and economics. Let us hope for the sake of Thailand this weekends election has a positive result for all parties, mmm……..!
What song will it be….The Yellow Submarine, or could we be singing this song come next week?
Thailand Election Aftermath
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