absolutelyBangkok archive · Business & Economics
Originally published April 8, 2010
Abhisit’s red hot summer:
March 2010 was indeed a month for a crash course on Thai democracy, not only for the Thai society but also for the international community. Political pundits have been holding their breath for weeks while the Abhisit government tried everything possible to steer the country away from another political breakdown. When the red shirts announced their final D-Day on 12/3/10, PM Abhisit canceled his trip to Australia & New Zealand that week and went ahead to invoke the Internal Security Act from 11-23/3/10 to prepare for the “red flood” from upcountry into Bangkok.
Since then, some 30,000 soldiers, 10,000 police and 10,000 civilian volunteer forces have been mobilized to provide security at the red shirts rallies as well at scores of prime target spots, as listed out by the red shirts for their mobile visits and for the nocturnal bomb throwers. Soon enough, both local and foreign who-is-who’s came out in full force to voice their concern and plead for non-violence by both the protesters and the government.
Hide and seek game:
Throughout the highly volatile situation, PM Abhisit and his cabinet kept their cool and endeavored to continue with their normal work schedules while going out of their way to dodge the red shirts’ highly aggravating mobile expeditions and antagonizing maneuvers e.g. laying siege at the government house, the parliament and the army base where PM Abhisit and his team were lodging and working in a war room to deal with emergency situations as they arose.
By Vongthip Chumpani*
Then there were those ghastly voodoo rituals e.g. drawing and pouring of 3,000 liters of the red shirts “own” (?) blood in front of the parliament, the Democrat Party headquarters and PM Abhisit’s own house! Faced with sabotage and death threats, PM Abhisit was given maximum security protection and had to be spirited in and out to chair the cabinet meetings, attend parliament sessions and other functions and events.
An April déjà vu?
For three weekends in a row Bangkok people either stayed put at home or left the city for the weekend to avoid city-wide traffic jams as tens of thousands boisterous red shirts were bussed in by Puea Thai MPs from the north and the northeast provinces to join their counterparts in Bangkok. Every evening they waited to hear their beloved master phone-ins, thanking them for coming, sweet-talking them to remain at the rally, pleading them to bring him home, urging them on to rise up against the powers-that-be and their political dictatorship and promising them great prosperity upon his return.
His themes for the fight varied from “Down with Amataya” to “Give back Democracy!” to “This is a class war” to “Dissolve parliament now!” The 3 week demonstration was televised live on PTV and got their fair share of attention from local as well as international mass media. During the weekends, more people were recruited to join the joy rides through the streets of Bangkok on hundreds of motorcycles and trucks.
Cat and mouse game
Things became increasingly more unsettling for the government when Thailand had to act as host of the IPU International Parliament Union in Bangkok and the first summit meeting of the Lower Mekong River Commission on in Huahin. With thousands of international delegates and mass media people in town, the Abhisit government could not do much to stop the red shirts from escalating their protest. Mindful of the public sentiments, PM Abhisit took the advice of the National Human Rights Commission and sat down to “negotiate” with three leaders of the red shirts on 28-29/3/10.
The two sessions (5.5 hours) were televised live on all TV channels, got the full attention of the nation and his popularity soared. Any glimmer of hope, however, was dashed when the red shirts unceremoniously rejected PM’s Abhisit’s road map to dissolve parliament in nine months vs their 2 week deadline. They flatly rejected his rationale: that all parties need to first agree on election rules and regulations and that there should be a guarantee of peaceful election campaigns.
When the red shirts walked away from the negotiating table, PM Abhisit flew off for his official visits to Brunei and Bahrain. A chance for the third round of talk evaporated when the red shirts started to escalate their “peaceful” protest to new limits.
Between the devil and the deep blue sea
Throughout the crisis, PM Abhisit reported regularly on the situation to the public on national television. Again and again, he emphasized that the red shirts’ had the right to demonstrate peacefully and that they could do so in accordance with the constitution and within the rule of law. In line with the people’s sentiment, he vowed not to use force to suppress the demonstrators.
He asked Bangkok residents to be patient with the traffic jams and other inconveniences for the sake of peaceful solutions. In the mean time, government security forces appeared to be failing again and again to exercise firmer measures to contain the aggressive crowds. When the red shirts moved to occupy and shut down the Ratchaprasong intersection on 3/4/10, Bangkok citizens lost their cool and started to show their frustration and anger, first at Thaksin and the red shirts and then at the Abhisit government.
As economic losses (from the tourist industry) started to climb, PM Abhisit was taken to task by the conservatives for failing to snip the demonstration in the bud and for failing to deal more firmly to end it. In the mean time, he was being accused of human rights violation by the protesters and warned against violence by the liberals at home and abroad.
High Noon
As the hot season’s temperatures continued to soar (around 40 degree), PM Abhisit’s policy to use international riot control measures and procedures started to falter. More red shirts were leaving the drought-plagued up-country to demonstrate in Bangkok while more Bangkokians left the city for their earlier-than-usual Songkran holiday. On 7/4/10 the red shirts broke the stalemate.
Their hard core contingent stormed into the parliament to hunt for PM Abhisit and DPM Suthep. The MPs had to end their session and flee the violent crowd by climbing down a wall-ladder behind the building. The incident prompted PM Abhisit to call for a special cabinet meeting to declare an emergency decree to deal with the rioting. Political rallies in and around Bangkok were forbidden.
The red shirts’ PTV was shut down and warrants issued for the immediate arrest of 19 red shirt leaders. Buses were sent to take the red shirts back to their home town. In defiance, the red shirts called for another big rally on 9/4/10. It would be a miracle if PM Abhisit could come out of this crisis unscathed. Waiting in the wings for their opportunity were the blue and the yellow shirts who have been sitting on the fence, enjoying the fight between the Democrats and the red shirts.
Amazing performance
Thanks to export, tourism and domestic consumption, the Thai economy continued to expand satisfactorily in 2/10. High farm incomes also drove sales of passenger cars, trucks, motorcycles and imported consumer goods (up 41%). Industrial capacity utilization went up a notch to 67.8%. Exports totaled USD 14.3 billion, down 23.5% yoy and imports USD 13.8 billion, down 80% yoy.
Trade balance, current account balance and balance of payments continued in the black at USD 452 million, USD 1,521 million and USD 119 million respectively. Official foreign reserves inched down slightly to USD 141.8 billion. Consumer price index went slightly down to 3.7% with core inflation at 0.3%. All interest rates remained unchanged and the THB strengthened slightly to THB 32.31 to USD.
In 3/10, notwithstanding the on-going political impasse, the SET went from strength to strength to end the month at 788. The exceptionally strong foreign fund inflows continued unabated and the SET broke the 800 in the first week of 4/10 before plunging on 7/4/10. Contrary to past track records, Thailand’s political risk seemed to have been discounted totally by foreign investors in 3/10!
Enterprising local investors, however, were more cautious, preferring to move in and out of the market to remain net sellers by the end of each trading day. More cautious local investors simply cashed out and went away to wait for better political situation.
Better late than never
Many people in the know seemed to agree that parliament dissolution could not solve Thailand’s current political crisis. For those who have been watching the red shirts’ reality show on PTV (to learn about the gullible upcountry folks and understand the reasons for their frustration and vulnerability), they could not help feeling disturbed by the fact that the rich and the strong members of the society have not been paying real attention to the plights of our weak and poor compatriots.
Bogged down by our deep concern for the country’s economic well-being and political power, we have indeed neglected our social problems. During this crisis, the Thai society has at last woken up to the fact that we all need to pitch in, make extra efforts and sacrifices to save the country from going over the brink, socially, politically and economically. Sad but true, we have all been just as guilty as anyone else for this social and political mess.
* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.
From the absolutelyBangkok archive. Back to all stories