absolutelyBangkok archive · Business & Economics
Originally published Nov. 5, 2009
Long live our king!
Since HM the king has checked into the hospital some six weeks ago, his loyal have been worried sick about the state of his health until they saw him healthy and smiling again as he made two impromptu tours of the hospital on his wheelchair on 23/10/09 and again on 2/11/09. In the last 45 days, some 900,000 people have gone to the hospital to present their flowers and sign the get-well books. Prayers have also been offered all over the country for his speedy recovery.
When malicious rumors about HM’s health started to make their rounds in mid 10/09, the people were furious. They could perhaps understand why foreign investors would be so concerned about the succession issue but that any Thais would dream of exploiting such a sensitive situation was beyond their comprehension. For decades, Thai people have always had complete faith and trust in HM the king’s wisdom and foresight to do whatever necessary to protect and preserve the monarchy, which has been the “soul of our nation” in the last 700 years.
Tugs of war:
In 10/09, PM Abhisit continued with his political balancing act. As head of the government, he could not afford to be emotional. Faced with daily vicious criticizm and dubious attacks from former friends (who overestimated him) and foes (who underestimated him), out to discredit his government, PM Abhisit has been able to keep his cool and exercise self-restraint as he tried to defuse the political “time bombs” one by one. PM Abhisit’s most difficult task has been to balance the interests and benefits of the various groups of people as he tried to introduce long overdue changes in the country’s economic and social structures and systems.
By Vongthip Chumpani*
While the Thai middle class have recently discovered their constitutional rights and were exercising them to the full, many of the Thai elites and politicians have still to come to terms with the inevitable changes. Caught in the middle, PM Abhisit has been resorting to “the rule of law” as the way out. This was easier said than done because, until recently, law enforcement in Thailand had been discriminatory against ordinary citizens while favoring those with money and power.
More hot potatoes
In 10/09 the issues that threatened the Abhisit administration’s credibility were the two weeks railway strike in the south; the highly offensive rumors of HM the King’s health that triggered panic selling in the Thai stock market on 14-15/10/09; the controversial amendment of the constitution; the current low crop prices; the Mabtaphut environmental controversy. The Thai Khemkaeng schemes have also been delayed and/or stalled by bureaucracy, red tapes and corruption scandals.
The loud noises made by these contentious issues have drown out other good programs that were introduced by the Abhisit government to ease economic woes of the poor and the weak members of the society e.g. national pension fund for some 24 million poor people not formally employed; loan scheme for SME’s; refinancing of unorganized-market loan schemes for the urban and rural poor; restructuring of student loans; community land title deeds for cooperatives; farm price insurance and support schemes etc.
Asean centrality
After months of careful and meticulous preparations, the 15th Asean Summit, Asean Plus 3 and Plus 6 finally took place in Cha-am/Huahin from 23-25/10/09. Notwithstanding the highly embarrassing and undiplomatic behavior of Thaksin’s friend from Cambodia, PM Abhisit was able to carry out his role as a perfect host of the event. He has also managed to restore the regional leaders’ confidence in Thailand that was badly shattered during the 14th Asean Summit in 4/09 in Pattaya.
This time around, the 16 leaders got on with the business at hand and accomplished much of their mission to move forward together to enhance and realize the Asean Economic Community in 2015. The big question was of course how to win the hearts and minds of the Asean people to subscribe to the Asean concepts and appreciate their shared heritage and benefits! After the final Asean-U.S. Summit meeting to be held in Singapore after the Apec summit in 11/09, Thailand’s Asean chairmanship would go to Vietnam in 2010.
More pantomimes
In 10/09 the red shirts seemed to have scaled down their activities after General Chavalit’s appointment as chairman of Phue Thai Party. With him came some 50 recently retired generals and bureaucrats as well as a handful of film stars. Upon his return from a trip to Cambodia, Gen Chavalit announced that PM Hun Sen was Thaksin’s “eternal friend” who would gladly accommodate his fugitive friend in Cambodia. Upon his arrival in Bangkok for the Asean Summit, PM Hun Sen confirmed he would make Thaksin his advisor and would reject any extradition request from the Thai government!
The statement was an insult not only for PM Abhisit but also for the Thai courts. Mindful of the devious plot to unseat him at all costs, PM Abhisit calmly asked PM Hun Sen to reconsider his stand and did what he could to cool down the situation, much to the disappointment of his own naïve admirers. Ignoring the public outcry, dear Gen. Chavalit insisted on making similar trips to the Deep South, Malaysia, Vietnam and Burma in 11/09. Meanwhile, the red shirts have threatened another all-out demonstration in 11-12/09 to pressure PM Abhisit to dissolve the parliament and call for a fresh election. Disgusted with such shameless gutter politics, many people have started to compare the current situation to the treacherous deeds that resulted in the fall of Ayudhya!
Ready for the showdown?
In 10/09 government and coalition parties were busy “managing” their allocated government spending projects. The Bangkok 4,000 NGV buses program was finally approved, albeit with stricter conditions. The impending THB 1 trillion railway restructuring and modernization projects over the next 20 years, triggered a bitter struggle between the SRT union and their management. The sudden return of the notorious financial wizard, Rakesh Saksena, on 30/10/09 (after 13 years of extradition legal battle in Canada) was like a “ghost risen from the past” for some of the Bhumjaithai party bosses.
Although PM Abhisit has promised strict non-interference by the government in this high profiled case, political pundits believed the trial would give Democrat Party more clouts in dealing with their powerful coalition partners. Meanwhile, the opposition parties have been gearing up their campaigns to win the hearts and minds of grassroots voters with their new networks of TV, community radios, twitters, newspapers, magazines, political schools, seminars and concerts.
The art of possibility
In 10/09 the PAD’s New Politics Party has started to flex their muscles. They organized and/or supported demonstrations against PM Hun Sen’s “insulting behavior” at the Cambodian Embassy, the 5 days protest march of the environmentalists from Mabtaphut, the 2 weeks railway strike by the SRT unionists. The PAD has also stepped up their criticizm of PM Abhisit, accusing him of weak leadership and failure to rein in corruption among his cabinet members. Many political pundits found NPP’s party leader’s speeches to be increasingly more like those of Thaksin in his early days.
Intelligent voters however knew that lofty ideals were fine until they were put to practice. Overnight changes, good as they might be, could prove to be just as destructive as no change at all. What most people wanted now was a stable government with continuity so that they could get on with their lives. In spite of all his constraints, PM Abhisit has proved to be a dedicated, intelligent, hard working, competent and democratic prime minister so why not give him more time and stronger support to help him move the country forward instead.
Stronger economy
The 9/09 figures have improved from previous month. Industrial output rose 0.4% for the first time in 11 months as electronics and automotive companies received more orders. Industrial capacity utilization moved up to 65%. Private consumption remained stable, with sales of automobiles up a hefty 20.6% and import of consumer goods up 0.7%. Consumer price index was -1% and core inflation -0.1%. Export yoy was down 8.3% to USD 14. 74 billion. Import yoy went down 18.2% to USD 12. 70 billion.
Balance of trade, current account and balance of payments were all in the black at USD 2.04 billion, USD 1.25 billion and USD 326 million respectively. GDP for 3Q09 shrank by 3.1. Interest rates remained unchanged. The SET showed a strong surge, peaking at 758 on 12/10/09 only to plunge steeply to 670 on 14/10/09 because of unfounded rumors. Having barely made it over 700, the SET was again hit by a global market correction and stronger USD, to end the month at 685.
The Baht was at THB 34.40 against USD, THB 36.40 against Yen, THB 49.56 against Euro and THB 55.24 against Sterling. Gold hit another record high of USD 1,050. Oil prices surged to USD 80 before tumbling to end the month at USD 77. Further recovery could be expected in 4Q09, unless political situation were to turn for the worse.
* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.
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